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人口定时炸弹:日本人“濒危”的8个迹象

 要论世界上寿命最长的国家,日本总能遥遥领先。但是对于生育率极低的日本来说,这一长寿优势只能加剧恶性循环,甚至催生出了不少怪象,比如,成人纸尿裤销量超过婴儿纸尿裤,监狱变成养老院,和朋友结婚等等。专家估算,长此以往,日本人将在3776年灭绝。

Japan is dealing with what economists call a "demographic time bomb."
日本正面临经济学家所谓的“人口定时炸弹”威胁。

Through a vicious cycle of low fertility and low consumer spending, the country's economy has gradually shrunk over the last 25 years.
受制于低生育率和低消费性开支的恶性循环,日本的经济在过去25年正逐渐缩水。

People are living longer, and they're heaping greater social-security costs onto younger generations who aren't having kids to replace them — thereby furthering the cycle.
人们的寿命变长了,老人们滚雪球一样的社保负担被转嫁到了年轻一代的身上,而年轻一代又没有生育出可以替代自己的孩子,于是这种恶性循环进一步加剧。

Here are some of the most visible signs in daily life that the time bomb is ticking.
以下是最能反映日本人口炸弹危机的日常迹象。

There are now 68,000 people over 100 years old.
现在日本100岁以上的老人已经有68000位。
 

人口定时炸弹:日本人“濒危”的8个迹象

To put Japan's widespread aging in perspective, 2017 marked the 47th straight year that the country has broken its own record for the number of centenarians, or people living past their 100th birthday.
要想清楚意识到日本普遍老龄化的现状,有一个事实是你必须知道的:2017年是日本百岁老人数量连续第47年打破纪录。

In 2016, there were roughly 65,000 centenarians out of the total population of 127 million. The new total for 2017 stands at 67,824, The Asahi Shimbun reported in September.
2016年,日本1.27亿人口中,大约有65000位百岁老人。根据《朝日新闻》今年9月报道的新数据,2017年百岁老人总数达到了67824位。

Japan has the highest rate of centenarians out of any country, with 4.8 per 100,000 people. The US, the country with the most overall, has 2.2 per 100,000.
日本的百岁老人占比是全世界最高的,每10万人中就有4.8个百岁老人。在百岁老人总数最多的美国,每10万人中才有2.2个百岁老人。

Adult diapers outsell baby diapers.
成人纸尿裤销量超过婴儿纸尿裤。

 

人口定时炸弹:日本人“濒危”的8个迹象

Ever since 2011, sales of adult diapers in Japan have outpaced those of baby diapers.
自从2011年以来,日本成人纸尿裤的销量就超过了婴儿纸尿裤。

The trend reflects just how big the cohort of senior citizens is: People over 65 make up a larger demographic than any other in Japan. Of the 127.11 million people, about 26.7% of them are seniors.
这一潮流反映出老年群体是多么庞大:日本65岁以上的人比其他任何年龄段的人都要多。日本共有1.27亿人口,而老年人就占了26.7%。

That proportion is up 3.7 percentage points from six years ago.
老年人占的比例相比六年前上升了3.7个百分点。


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